Queen’s Gambit, Indian Defense and South China Sea — Part 1
Strategy is often misunderstood. Not the least by people in the world of business. We have business strategy, marketing strategy, digital strategy, operations strategy and IT strategy to name just a few. It’s all very good to have all these different types of strategy, but what does it mean? Is strategy about picking out the most important things to go after? Is it about how we go after these things? Or is it about getting the desired outcomes? An oft-used word is oft-misunderstood.
I do not want to get into defining strategy. You can have all the definitions which you want and plenty more by looking up Wikipedia or an online dictionary. Do people still use physical dictionaries? I have a couple lying around in my home library. Lately, I have found a use for them. They serve well to prop up my daughter’s iPad when she attends her online classes since its cover lacks a stand. However, I am drifting. So, what I want to say is that I am not going to define what strategy is. What I will do instead is to provide three traits by which you may recognize this noun named “strategy” the next time that you meet it.
The Three Traits
- Strategy requires second-order thinking. First-order thinking goes by the name of tactics. What is the difference, you ask? Why, we will get into it through the Queen’s Gambit.
- Strategy is about being dynamic in response to developing ground realities. Possibilities can be opened up by not just the first mover, but also by a surprising counter such as the Indian Defense.
- Strategy develops through an interaction among multiple decision-makers, each of whom is vying for an optimal outcome in their favor. We will see that through the lens of countries competing in the South China Sea.
Queen’s Gambit
The Queen’s Gambit is a chess opening that starts with the moves: 1.d4 d5 2.c4.
The image alongside shows the same, with Black accepting the Queen’s Gambit with 2.c4 dxc4. At a first glance, White sacrificing a pawn to gain nothing in return immediately perhaps makes no sense. It only makes sense when one realizes that the Queen’s Gambit is a tactic, but a tactic leading up to a strategy.
For those not familiar with chess, the first opening principle in chess is control of the center, particularly, the squares d4, e4, d5 and e5. So what appeared as an unnecessary sacrifice at the first instance is a simple ploy by White to exchange a wing pawn (White’s c-pawn) for a center pawn (Black’s d-pawn) and dominate the center with e2–e4. Also, this is not a true gambit, as Black cannot hold the pawn.
I can see those who know chess rising up in their seats to protest, “What strategy? These are textbook opening moves.” I know. I know. I am not trying to teach any chess strategy here. I am just taking a simple example to demonstrate what do I mean by second-order thinking. Offering the c4 pawn is the first-order thinking or tactic, while the positional play that White has in mind for the next set of moves is the second-order thinking of strategy.
Strategy requires thought, tactics require observation
— Max Euwe, a Dutch chess grandmaster and mathematician
In the real word, China’s national security law for Hong Kong is a tactic of the Communist Party. Regarding the strategy, your guess is as good as mine. However, as you guess the next steps, there are two points to keep in mind regarding moves in the real world.
- No one knows when the game began. Was it on 1st July 1997, after the handover ceremony between the UK and China? Was it in 1842, when the Treaty of Nanking was signed? Or was it any number of earlier dates? We don’t know.
- In real life, unlike in chess, some players may not follow the rules that were earlier agreed upon and get away with it.
Returning from these complexities of the real world, the simple takeaway from this discussion is that —
Strategy requires second-order thinking.
Indian Defense
White moves its troops to the center to take control by opening with d4. Does Black have any choice other than to directly confront White with d5 in response, thus setting the stage for White to offer the Queen’s Gambit through 2. c4 on its second move?
White’s troops have crossed over and are threatening to seize control? At a height of 14,000 ft, the terrain is steep with a fast-flowing river underneath. A single misstep can cost many lives. What can Black do? Since White played first, does Black have to give in to the first mover’s advantage and play their game? Or is there another way.
“Tactics is knowing what to do when there is something to do; strategy is knowing what to do when there is nothing to do.”
— Savielly Tartakower, a leading Austrian, then Polish, and finally French chess grandmaster
Real life is not simple. There are many factors to consider, many calculations to make and many possibilities to choose from. What we can only learn from chess is that Black can be dynamic in its response. Black can respond with Indian Defense — 2. Nf6. There are many variations after this. They are all, to varying degrees, what are termed as hyper-modern defenses, where Black invites White to establish an imposing presence in the center with the plan of undermining and ultimately destroying it.
The image alongside shows one possible way in which the game develops, following the Indian Defense.
Of course, who wins or does it end in a draw depends upon how well each player follows up with their own tactics, by not making any mistakes and strategy, by being creative in their play. Black can keep developing its pieces into either an aggressive and somewhat risky play using the King’s Indian Defense or a solid, safe and somewhat drawish play using the Queen’s Indian Defense (this is the one shown in the image above). The only learning from this discussion is that, one does not have to respond along expected lines. Instead —
Strategy is about being dynamic in response to developing ground realities.
We will continue our discussion using South China Sea to understand how strategy develops through an interaction among multiple decision-makers in Part 2 of this article. Stay tuned.
